Oshkosh or now known as EAA's AirVenture, is about two elementary things: airplanes and flying airplanes. If one needs to explain that further, then I may be wasting keystrokes at this point or by inductive reasoning, I could conclude that you are not part of the group of nutjobs that think airplanes are a gift from God.
Being around airplanes, hundreds and hundreds of them along with fellow pilots is always an escape from whatever you want to temporarily leave and an imagination exercise all at the same time. Nowhere can you see what people dream up and then make happen like you do here. I always feel energized and “smarter” after I leave Oshkosh. And I always leave with a smile and that is the best compliment I could ever give to this wonderful, summertime destination.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Monday, August 2, 2010
Wirrrrrr goes the airplane. Oshkosh Lives up to its Mission of Innovation
I attended the annual summertime EAA’s AirVenture in Oshkosh, Wisconsin last week. It was the first time in twelve years I attended the so called Mecca of aviation on my own and was not part of a company exhibiting an airplane or looking for investors. It was a refreshing way to enjoy what has become an annual destination and see dear friends again.
The one thing that EAA and its many exhibitors worked hard to demonstrate is that the concept of an alternative energy aircraft is morphing from bar talk to becoming something that flies and there is much sweat equity being invested into making this a reality and eventually commercialized. Given the skepticism of most investors towards airplane companies, this may be a bright spot in aerospace innovation for the next several years.
Demonstrating the inertia behind this initiative, Cessna announced last week that it intends to fly an electrically powered 172 with Colorado based Bye Energy as its R&D partner by the end of 2010.
Electric Helicopter
Another Fortune 100 company spending R&D dollars on this concept is Sikorsky, the company owned by United Technologies. It brought an electrically powered helicopter called the Firefly, a Hughes 269 airframe with the piston engine removed and replaced by an electric motor driven by batteries in pods on either side of the fuselage.
Electrically Powered Airliner
In the “WTH” category, Boeing announced last week that it is working on a concept plane called the SUGAR Volt that would use turbine engines and electric motors connected to the fans to more efficiently propel the electric airliner. The hybrid-powered jetliner of the future would operate on batteries or jet fuel, depending on whether it's cruising or taking off and climbing, when the most thrust is required. On flights of up to 900 miles, the SUGAR Volt would cruise almost exclusively on battery power, said Marty Bradley, a technical fellow at Boeing's research and technology division in Huntington Beach, Calif. An electric propulsion system would help slash the amount of fuel burned as well as noise around airports by about 70 percent compared with today's airliner fleet, say aerospace researchers who believe they can have such a flying machine up and running by about 2035.
GE Aviation sponsored an all day symposium, THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC FLIGHT at Oshkosh to highlight and educate the public on electrically powered flight. At the July 30th symposium, a contest was announced to develop by 2011 a personal commuter aircraft that operates on electricity or fuel cells and can average at least 100 mph on a 200-mile flight while achieving greater than 200 passenger mpg. The Green Flight Challenge, sponsored by NASA and the CAFE Foundation, offers a $1.5 million first prize for the aircraft with the best performance.
Some of the competing teams already presented their designs at the symposium last week. The participants included aerospace engineers and students from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Georgia Tech University, Penn State University and the University of Colorado.
If money is the real fuel that makes airplanes go, then the challenge in front of these aerospace companies pursuing electrically powered aircraft is persuading the Federal government to view the aircraft industry as equally important as the automobile industry. The electric automobile industry receives substantial Federal investment and U.S. companies Tesla and Fisker have benefited from this mezzanine financing structure. Perhaps Boeing, UTC and Cessna and their DC lobbyists can pry open the wallets of Congress to shovel some its alternative energy R&D dollars towards this potentially lucrative and important new sector.
On the technical side, it is generally agreed that the battery technology does not yet exist for making this a practical alternative. And certainly not at a cost structure that approaches something reasonable. Simply said, it is going to take a B-I-G battery or lots and lots of normal sized batteries to drive a prop with enough torque and for a long enough period of time to make it commercially viable. First flight of the Sikorsky Firefly is imminent, but being a technology demonstrator, endurance is just 15 minutes.
In an alternative energy corollary, Porsche AG is already racing a 911 GT3 R Hybrid in Europe for LeMans-style endurance racing. The vehicle features two electric motors that power the front wheels in addition to a 480hp gas engine that drives the rear wheels. The hybrid system stands to offer significant fuel savings, reducing the need for pit stops and cutting down on the vehicle’s weight.
Rather than relying upon heavy lithium-ion batteries, the high-performance vehicle has a flywheel generator mounted in its passenger seat that can spin at up to 40,000 rpm. This generator stores energy each time the vehicle brakes, and then for 6-8 seconds afterward the driver can release a 160hp boost by merely tapping a button on the steering wheel. Logic suggests that this engineering driven company will use this “racing lab” to solve the many challenges of bringing alternative energy powered technology to a 911 sports car (maybe hybrid, maybe not) for commercial sale. Similarly, aerospace companies must continue their persistence and determination to solve the pure technical hurdles related to flight but only budgets similar to a Porsche will lubricate the path to make it commercially acceptable.
The announcements and projects presented last week demonstrate that this embryonic industry has advanced past the science fair project stage to show a bridge between what is possible and what is practical. And it just may be the only way to inject some growth into the declining general aviation market segment.
In case there were any doubts whatsoever, innovation remains alive and well. And that is what Oshkosh is all about.
The one thing that EAA and its many exhibitors worked hard to demonstrate is that the concept of an alternative energy aircraft is morphing from bar talk to becoming something that flies and there is much sweat equity being invested into making this a reality and eventually commercialized. Given the skepticism of most investors towards airplane companies, this may be a bright spot in aerospace innovation for the next several years.
Demonstrating the inertia behind this initiative, Cessna announced last week that it intends to fly an electrically powered 172 with Colorado based Bye Energy as its R&D partner by the end of 2010.
Electric Helicopter
Another Fortune 100 company spending R&D dollars on this concept is Sikorsky, the company owned by United Technologies. It brought an electrically powered helicopter called the Firefly, a Hughes 269 airframe with the piston engine removed and replaced by an electric motor driven by batteries in pods on either side of the fuselage.
Electrically Powered Airliner
In the “WTH” category, Boeing announced last week that it is working on a concept plane called the SUGAR Volt that would use turbine engines and electric motors connected to the fans to more efficiently propel the electric airliner. The hybrid-powered jetliner of the future would operate on batteries or jet fuel, depending on whether it's cruising or taking off and climbing, when the most thrust is required. On flights of up to 900 miles, the SUGAR Volt would cruise almost exclusively on battery power, said Marty Bradley, a technical fellow at Boeing's research and technology division in Huntington Beach, Calif. An electric propulsion system would help slash the amount of fuel burned as well as noise around airports by about 70 percent compared with today's airliner fleet, say aerospace researchers who believe they can have such a flying machine up and running by about 2035.
GE Aviation sponsored an all day symposium, THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC FLIGHT at Oshkosh to highlight and educate the public on electrically powered flight. At the July 30th symposium, a contest was announced to develop by 2011 a personal commuter aircraft that operates on electricity or fuel cells and can average at least 100 mph on a 200-mile flight while achieving greater than 200 passenger mpg. The Green Flight Challenge, sponsored by NASA and the CAFE Foundation, offers a $1.5 million first prize for the aircraft with the best performance.
Some of the competing teams already presented their designs at the symposium last week. The participants included aerospace engineers and students from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Georgia Tech University, Penn State University and the University of Colorado.
If money is the real fuel that makes airplanes go, then the challenge in front of these aerospace companies pursuing electrically powered aircraft is persuading the Federal government to view the aircraft industry as equally important as the automobile industry. The electric automobile industry receives substantial Federal investment and U.S. companies Tesla and Fisker have benefited from this mezzanine financing structure. Perhaps Boeing, UTC and Cessna and their DC lobbyists can pry open the wallets of Congress to shovel some its alternative energy R&D dollars towards this potentially lucrative and important new sector.
On the technical side, it is generally agreed that the battery technology does not yet exist for making this a practical alternative. And certainly not at a cost structure that approaches something reasonable. Simply said, it is going to take a B-I-G battery or lots and lots of normal sized batteries to drive a prop with enough torque and for a long enough period of time to make it commercially viable. First flight of the Sikorsky Firefly is imminent, but being a technology demonstrator, endurance is just 15 minutes.
In an alternative energy corollary, Porsche AG is already racing a 911 GT3 R Hybrid in Europe for LeMans-style endurance racing. The vehicle features two electric motors that power the front wheels in addition to a 480hp gas engine that drives the rear wheels. The hybrid system stands to offer significant fuel savings, reducing the need for pit stops and cutting down on the vehicle’s weight.
Rather than relying upon heavy lithium-ion batteries, the high-performance vehicle has a flywheel generator mounted in its passenger seat that can spin at up to 40,000 rpm. This generator stores energy each time the vehicle brakes, and then for 6-8 seconds afterward the driver can release a 160hp boost by merely tapping a button on the steering wheel. Logic suggests that this engineering driven company will use this “racing lab” to solve the many challenges of bringing alternative energy powered technology to a 911 sports car (maybe hybrid, maybe not) for commercial sale. Similarly, aerospace companies must continue their persistence and determination to solve the pure technical hurdles related to flight but only budgets similar to a Porsche will lubricate the path to make it commercially acceptable.
The announcements and projects presented last week demonstrate that this embryonic industry has advanced past the science fair project stage to show a bridge between what is possible and what is practical. And it just may be the only way to inject some growth into the declining general aviation market segment.
In case there were any doubts whatsoever, innovation remains alive and well. And that is what Oshkosh is all about.
Texas Rangers Baseball Miracle
Is anyone following this Texas Rangers bankruptcy calamity besides a few members of the media and lots of bankruptcy attorneys (and me)? The baseball team (the product) is playing a great brand of baseball, currently occupying first place in the AL West which is translating to excitement for a possible post-season appearance. Nolan Ryan, the President of the company and the General Manager, Jon Daniels are doing their jobs magnificently. However, the seemingly never ending saga of failed ownership has put what is a great product on the field in jeopardy of becoming a more interesting story due to the emotional, legal roller coaster ride it is taking publicly.
I survived an emotional, high profile, heavy media focus bankruptcy that went from a Ch 11 filing to a failed stalking horse bid to a Ch 7 liquidation. That experience taught me so many things but the one thing I will offer - whatever is being reported in the media is probably about 1/10 of what is really happening. Most often it is not nearly as enticing as the media portrays it to be. However, what is a reasonable hypothesis is that when the “B” guys (billionaires) are involved in selling expensive assets, buying big toys like professional sports teams or lenders trying to recover large, lost loans, emotions will run high. Which is why this is great entertainment off the field. And when those HNW’s (high net worth individuals) are involved, the media will write things and report things that may frustrate Judge Michael Lynn and the lawyers from both sides.
To date, since the Texas Rangers Baseball Partners company (Tom Hicks holding company who actually owns the Rangers) filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the Federal Bankruptcy Code on May 24, 2010, the product on the field has not seemed to be affected by the legal goat rodeo going on in the Fort Worth, Texas courthouse. Which suggests that the real asset of the Texas Rangers is the President of the ballclub, Nolan Ryan. He is the architect and the experienced, respected baseball person that can continue to make this a non-event for the product on the field. Look at one metric of customer satisfaction – home ticket sales since 2008 when Nolan took over as President:
• Up 17% from the 2007 season
• From 25th place to 15th place in attendance amongst all MLB clubs
• Approximately $8.6 million per year increase in ticket sales revenues
It is climbing because the product on the field is improving and not affected by the bankruptcy. A difficult thing to accomplish for any leadership team yet Nolan's team is succeeding.
[ Interestingly, one quant analysis attempts to predict this attendance based on multiple variables and has been very accurate in the past: http://www.texasleaguers.com/home/2010/4/5/2010-texas-rangers-wins-attendance-and-playoffs.html. The author’s formulas are based on Vince Gennaro’s book, Diamond Dollars, The Economics of Winning Baseball. http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0977743632?ie=UTF8&tag=texasleaguerscom-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0977743632 ]
August 4th, 2010 is the scheduled date of the bankruptcy court auction if other bidders come forth with acceptable offers for the assets. The beauty of this potential auction is it would be made public. Only then would the public see who the bidder(s) is/are, if Mark Cuban will be a friend or villain in the end, and whoever becomes the new owner of the Texas Ranger Baseball team, will that group retain Nolan and will Nolan work for them.
Troy Aikman once said that “Dallas is not a sports town, it is a winner’s town.” Nolan Ryan is a winner and he should remain part of the winning bidder’s plans or they risk losing money, plus the fan’s hearts and minds. Next to go will be the players. And ultimately, that is the product they are buying.
Updates from August 5, 2010 - post auction -
The Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan Group won a dramatic and heated auction bidding against Jim Crane from Houston and Mark Cuban, the owner of the Dallas Mavericks from Dallas. The courtroom drama and actual bidding commenced at 9am on Wednesday August 4 and ended at 1am Thursday morning. Read Mark Cuban's blog (listed on the right) about CHASING THE RANGERS. This should put to rest the media's villian or friend concerns. He is a businessman geared to make money. His posting describes eloquently how he assessed the risks identified and worked to minimize those risks.
The Dallas Morning News did a nice job of reporting the details for the non-BK educated person. Channel 11 in Dallas/Ft Worth did an excellent job of live blogging the auction details from the courtroom as they happened.
Did Greenberg/Ryan pay too much? Their winning bid early Thursday morning was $130M more than their stalking horse bid from May 24, 2010 and $30M more than their offer made on August 3rd to avoid the auction. http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/baseball/rangers/stories/080710dnosporangerssale.2d77bf3.html
Nolan Ryan was seen as the good guy by the media and Texas Rangers employees - http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/baseball/rangers/stories/080610dnspograntcol.2a19b7a.html
I survived an emotional, high profile, heavy media focus bankruptcy that went from a Ch 11 filing to a failed stalking horse bid to a Ch 7 liquidation. That experience taught me so many things but the one thing I will offer - whatever is being reported in the media is probably about 1/10 of what is really happening. Most often it is not nearly as enticing as the media portrays it to be. However, what is a reasonable hypothesis is that when the “B” guys (billionaires) are involved in selling expensive assets, buying big toys like professional sports teams or lenders trying to recover large, lost loans, emotions will run high. Which is why this is great entertainment off the field. And when those HNW’s (high net worth individuals) are involved, the media will write things and report things that may frustrate Judge Michael Lynn and the lawyers from both sides.
To date, since the Texas Rangers Baseball Partners company (Tom Hicks holding company who actually owns the Rangers) filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the Federal Bankruptcy Code on May 24, 2010, the product on the field has not seemed to be affected by the legal goat rodeo going on in the Fort Worth, Texas courthouse. Which suggests that the real asset of the Texas Rangers is the President of the ballclub, Nolan Ryan. He is the architect and the experienced, respected baseball person that can continue to make this a non-event for the product on the field. Look at one metric of customer satisfaction – home ticket sales since 2008 when Nolan took over as President:
• Up 17% from the 2007 season
• From 25th place to 15th place in attendance amongst all MLB clubs
• Approximately $8.6 million per year increase in ticket sales revenues
It is climbing because the product on the field is improving and not affected by the bankruptcy. A difficult thing to accomplish for any leadership team yet Nolan's team is succeeding.
[ Interestingly, one quant analysis attempts to predict this attendance based on multiple variables and has been very accurate in the past: http://www.texasleaguers.com/home/2010/4/5/2010-texas-rangers-wins-attendance-and-playoffs.html. The author’s formulas are based on Vince Gennaro’s book, Diamond Dollars, The Economics of Winning Baseball. http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0977743632?ie=UTF8&tag=texasleaguerscom-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0977743632 ]
August 4th, 2010 is the scheduled date of the bankruptcy court auction if other bidders come forth with acceptable offers for the assets. The beauty of this potential auction is it would be made public. Only then would the public see who the bidder(s) is/are, if Mark Cuban will be a friend or villain in the end, and whoever becomes the new owner of the Texas Ranger Baseball team, will that group retain Nolan and will Nolan work for them.
Troy Aikman once said that “Dallas is not a sports town, it is a winner’s town.” Nolan Ryan is a winner and he should remain part of the winning bidder’s plans or they risk losing money, plus the fan’s hearts and minds. Next to go will be the players. And ultimately, that is the product they are buying.
Updates from August 5, 2010 - post auction -
The Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan Group won a dramatic and heated auction bidding against Jim Crane from Houston and Mark Cuban, the owner of the Dallas Mavericks from Dallas. The courtroom drama and actual bidding commenced at 9am on Wednesday August 4 and ended at 1am Thursday morning. Read Mark Cuban's blog (listed on the right) about CHASING THE RANGERS. This should put to rest the media's villian or friend concerns. He is a businessman geared to make money. His posting describes eloquently how he assessed the risks identified and worked to minimize those risks.
The Dallas Morning News did a nice job of reporting the details for the non-BK educated person. Channel 11 in Dallas/Ft Worth did an excellent job of live blogging the auction details from the courtroom as they happened.
Did Greenberg/Ryan pay too much? Their winning bid early Thursday morning was $130M more than their stalking horse bid from May 24, 2010 and $30M more than their offer made on August 3rd to avoid the auction. http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/baseball/rangers/stories/080710dnosporangerssale.2d77bf3.html
Nolan Ryan was seen as the good guy by the media and Texas Rangers employees - http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/baseball/rangers/stories/080610dnspograntcol.2a19b7a.html
Friday, July 23, 2010
An airplane is nothing more than a formation of aluminum compromises
I flew a Seeker Seabird recently in New Mexico. It is an example of an airplane that is built and certified to fulfill a simple mission and it does just that. The Seabird is a plane with few compromises to the design objective. It is built for going slow, looking around and doing it all remarkably inexpensively. It is 3 for 3 towards those objectives. It sort of begs the question why can’t more aircraft (products) do this?
The Pilatus PC12 comes to mind as another aircraft that meets its design objectives. It hauls people and stuff as if you are packing a Chevy Suburban, does it as fast as turboprops with two engines and is measurably more comfortable inside than other single engine turboprops. Ok, there are two airplanes that fulfill their Marketing Requirements Document. Are there others?
The Oportunity of a Lifetime Comes Around About Every Two Weeks
My dad had a bunch of sayings that drove me crazy when I was a kid, but similar to Mark Twain, I am amazed at how smart he was as I look around 30 plus years later. One of his country, Texas folk sayings was: “the opportunity of a lifetime comes around about every two weeks.” I have drawn many things from this pithy comment over the years but I am now convinced it is about balance. Not that you shouldn’t keep swinging, to misuse a baseball metaphor. Balance in this case is defined as weighing the pursuit of core business basics against risk.
Venture capitalists, angel investors and entrepreneurs today must follow or pursue their convictions with a zeal like never before. Pursuing a “hunch” or “your gut” is the riskier way of finding opportunities but only the basics of any company make up a business’ DNA; LIQUIDITY, PROFITABILITY & GROWTH should be the primary pursuits today balanced against those riskier opportunities. If your pursuits cannot predictably deliver at least one of these three things in an acceptable way (positively), then consider why you are doing them.
Venture capitalists, angel investors and entrepreneurs today must follow or pursue their convictions with a zeal like never before. Pursuing a “hunch” or “your gut” is the riskier way of finding opportunities but only the basics of any company make up a business’ DNA; LIQUIDITY, PROFITABILITY & GROWTH should be the primary pursuits today balanced against those riskier opportunities. If your pursuits cannot predictably deliver at least one of these three things in an acceptable way (positively), then consider why you are doing them.
The Best Product Usually Wins
Recently, an Albuquerque, New Mexico 17 year old student athlete declared he was leaving the state and its two major universities to seek a college life (and play football) in Texas. Local media including the fishwraps and sports talk radio seem to find this a deplorable act. What utter nonsense. If great products do indeed win, then this young man who was pursued and wooed because of how he plays football must have chosen the best product for himself. That is not bashing UNM or NMSU. It is simply recognizing that he had choices and he chose what he wanted, based on a multitude of check boxes I suspect.
I think this may be an old Dilbert line: “Most people can’t tell the difference between fine Asian silk and Bounty paper towels. They either can’t tell the difference or do not have access to the alternatives. The job of marketing is to find these groups of people, stick a vacuum pump in their pockets and suck until all you get is lint.” Today’s internet driven, instant news world gives much greater access to alternatives and actually can educate a consumer (or student) past the emotional seduction marketers strive to obtain.
And as to this local story, young people today have zero responsibility to attend a university simply because it is local. The university athletic departments do have a responsibility to create the best athletic programs (products) they can. And BTW, Paul Krebbs is doing just that at UNM.
I think this may be an old Dilbert line: “Most people can’t tell the difference between fine Asian silk and Bounty paper towels. They either can’t tell the difference or do not have access to the alternatives. The job of marketing is to find these groups of people, stick a vacuum pump in their pockets and suck until all you get is lint.” Today’s internet driven, instant news world gives much greater access to alternatives and actually can educate a consumer (or student) past the emotional seduction marketers strive to obtain.
And as to this local story, young people today have zero responsibility to attend a university simply because it is local. The university athletic departments do have a responsibility to create the best athletic programs (products) they can. And BTW, Paul Krebbs is doing just that at UNM.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)